In an interview with the Financial Post, Michael Carter explains the “Thucydides trap” referenced in the recent summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping.
President Xi asked President Trump, “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides trap?’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?”
As the Post writes, “The term ‘Thucydides trap’ was popularized by political scientist Graham Allison in “Destined for War,” his 2017 book about China–U.S. relations. It the idea that conflict is the likely outcome when a rising power threatens to challenge a ruling one (in the 16 historical examples Allison cites, only four avoid it).
The theory is derived from a line in the “History of the Peloponnesian War”: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,” according to a common translation.
“That’s what Graham Allison’s argument is, that the United States is the hegemon or the leader of the world and then there’s China as a rapidly rising power,” Carter said. “And at one point, something is going to happen and there’s going to be a break.”
Carter continued, “The remarkable thing is Thucydides knew that, because he understood human nature. And that’s one of the very first things he says in the book is that, ‘I’m writing this as an example, for all time, because people don’t change, and this will happen again.’”
Read the full article here: https://financialpost.com/news/who-was-thucydides-the-ancient-greek-general-referenced-by-carney-and-xi
From The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
