Arthur Sweetman (McMaster) will be presenting September 19 at 2:30 until 4pm in STH 203.

Title of Paper – Physician Labour Supply: Efficient Use of General-Purpose Surveys

Abstract

Physician labor supply trends in Canada from 1987 to 2021 are examined together with the correlates of the current perceived physician shortage. A survey weighting technique with general applicability is employed that enhances estimation quality for profession-specific analysis using the modest sample sizes of general-purpose surveys. Our findings indicate a 16.5% decline in average work hours among practicing physicians during the study period. The reduced work hours among male physicians contribute significantly to this decline. The growing representation of females within the workforce, characterized by fewer hours than their male counterparts, also contributes to the downward trend. Moreover, the aging of the physician workforce contributes noticeably to the overall decline in average work hours. Particularly, there has been an approximately 90% rise in physicians aged 65 and older between 1989 and 2021. These senior physicians work notably fewer hours than their prime-age counterparts. Increasing lengths of absences (e.g., vacations) among physicians also contributes to the decline. Though we cannot distinguish cohort effects from year effects, successive cohorts are observed to work fewer hours than preceding ones.