EXPERT ADVISORY — January 23, 2026 — R0008

Discussion about the United States’s intentions for Greenland ramped up this week as leaders gathered for the annual World Economic Forum, prompting some to speak openly about implications for international order.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered what Brock University Associate Professor of Political Science Stefan Dolgert considers one of the “most consequential speeches given by a Canadian leader in decades.”

Dolgert says Carney’s reference to “The Power of the Powerless,” an essay by anti-communist dissident Vaclav Havel that points to ways ordinary people could resist Soviet totalitarianism during the Cold War, draws a striking parallel to America’s current threats against its fellow NATO member.

“It’s amazing to hear a Canadian leader say the role of the U.S. in the world today is the equivalent of Soviet totalitarianism, the very thing Canadians oriented themselves against by joining NATO and by being part of the American sphere of influence in the latter half of the 20th century,” he says.

For Dolgert, the specific lesson Carney pulls from Havel about refusing to “carry out everyday rituals” that empower the ruling party suggests an important shift for Canada, especially in response to recent U.S. actions in South America and threats of aggression in Greenland.

Although Trump appeared to take military action in Greenland off the table on Wednesday, Jan. 21, the situation is far from resolved.

“Carney is saying we will no longer go along with the lie that says the American leadership of the rules-based international order is serving the interests of peace and justice and democracy worldwide,” he says. “We can’t look away any longer because now the mask is off. It’s naked aggression.”

In the face of a looming threat to NATO’s stability, Dolgert says Carney was able to acknowledge the economic challenges associated with withdrawing from dependence on the U.S. while still calling upon other “middle powers” to work together.

“He argued that we have to go a different way now, even if the world will be poorer because of it,” he says. “The clear implication is that we middle powers need to make our own security guarantees with each other rather than relying on the U.S.”

Associate Professor of Political Science Paul Hamilton sees Trump’s demands for Greenland as “part of his ambition to build a historical legacy, very much in keeping with his renaming of the Gulf of Mexico, his desire to annex Canada and his willingness to deploy troops in Latin America.”

But Hamilton says the political and economic costs of these demands could be incredibly high. If the European parliament does not ratify its trade deal with the U.S., which was negotiated in July, for instance, levies of more than $100 billion on U.S. goods entering Europe are set to kick in on Feb. 7.

“Any move to annex Greenland would likely mean the end of NATO as we have known it,” Hamilton says. “But it would also mean American goods headed to Europe would be subject to a set of tariffs already agreed upon by the EU.”

The levies were proposed in response to earlier tariff threats from the U.S. but suspended during trade negotiations and were likely to be removed once parliament approved the deal. In light of recent threats to Greenland and Denmark, however, Hamilton says the levies are now back in play.

Another tool the EU might deploy is the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), a collection of measures that can be taken against a nation attempting to control a member nation through economic sanctions. Though it has existed since 2023, the ACI has never been used.

While Hamilton predicts that a solution to the levies will likely be reached before the deadline, he also says the EU and other allies are “hastening efforts to find reliable security and trade partners” in the wake of the Greenland threats.

“The EU’s trade agreement with the Mercosur states — Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay — last week was a sign of a pivot away from the U.S.,” he says.

Brock University Associate Professor of Political Science Stefan Dolgert and Associate Professor of Political Science Paul Hamilton are available for media interviews on this topic.

For more information or for assistance arranging interviews:

*Sarah Ackles, Communications Specialist, Brock University [email protected] or 289-241-5483

– 30 –