Articles from:April 2025

• Brock experts available to comment on Trump’s path to a third presidential term

  Tuesday, April 29, 2025 | By Brock University

  EXPERT ADVISORY – April 29, 2025 – R0054

  With U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent launch of official “Trump 2028” merchandise, Brock University experts point to historical and recent examples of leaders who have flouted or reinterpreted laws to justify staying in office beyond term limits.

  Although the U.S. Constitution explicitly prohibits a third term for any president, Associate Professor of Political Science Pascal Lupien says this will only present an obstacle if Trump cannot gain enough popular support.

  “In Latin America, nearly every country enshrines term limits in their constitutions, but it’s quite common for presidents to remain in office despite these provisions,” he says.

  Lupien points to current sitting presidents in Venezuela, Nicaragua and El Salvador who are still in power beyond the constitutional term limits, which he credits to political manoeuvring and questionable legal tactics.

  “These include stacking the high courts with people who are more loyal to the president than to the constitution and neutering the Congress/legislature, both of which Trump has done to a certain extent,” Lupien says. “It also includes getting a significant segment of the public on board. Politicizing and taking direct control of the army is another crucial step for a leader who wishes to remain in power against the constitution.”

  Lupien further notes that the general public seems unprepared to believe that democracy could be thwarted in the U.S., “naively assuming that this kind of erosion can only occur in the Global South.” But since January 2021 and over the first months of President Trump’s second term, he says institutions have shown to be “fluid and weakened.”

  Associate Professor of Political Science Stefan Dolgert says would-be authoritarians in Italy, France, Spain and Germany in the 1920s and 1930s all engaged in “provocative actions.”  

  “The dangerous implications were not immediately perceived at the time, sometimes because of how outlandish their behaviour appeared,” he says. “Canadians and Americans need to understand that seemingly ludicrous actions by authoritarian rulers are an established path to actual despotism.”

  Dolgert adds that the launch of new “third term” apparel follows a trend visible over Trump’s political career.

  “He initially floats ideas that are flagrantly unconstitutional, then claims to have only been joking when these comments provoke legitimate outrage,” says Dolgert. “He then acts like he has been victimized by this public shaming before doubling down on the initial idea, now no longer in jest.”

  Dolgert predicts that “as with other moves Trump has made in the past 100 days, he will try to find a legal loophole” to justify a change to the Constitution and will be willing to test the case on a flimsy premise.

  Even if that fails, other dangers remain, Dolgert says.

  Seeking a third term is likely to result in massive protests and resistance from many Americans, he says, which Trump may “use as a pretext for imposing martial law and outright tyranny.”

  Still, Lupien notes a key difference between the American system and some of the Latin American nations where power has been held beyond term limits.

  “In most of Latin America, loyalty to the president, at least when the president is on the right of the spectrum, is deeply engrained in military institutions, but in the U.S., officers and soldiers swear to defend the constitution, not to obey the president,” he says. “Enlisted members do swear to obey lawful orders from the president and officers, but within the framework of the constitution and the law.”

  While Lupien believes the military obligation to refuse to follow illegal orders might be beneficial, he warns that the tide of popular opinion should not be underestimated.

  “The power of a constitution depends on the willingness of people to uphold it,” Lupien says.

  Associate Professors of Political Science Pascal Lupien and Stefan Dolgert are available for media interviews on this topic.

  For more information or for assistance arranging interviews:

  *Sarah Ackles, Communications Specialist, Brock University [email protected] or 289-241-5483

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  Categories: Media releases

• How has the process for electing a new pope changed over time? A Brock historian weighs in

  Monday, April 28, 2025 | By Brock University

  EXPERT ADVISORY – April 28, 2025 – R0053

  Following the funeral of Pope Francis on Saturday, Roman Catholic cardinals will soon meet to begin the process of electing his successor.

  The papal conclave, which has traditionally drawn the attention of billions of Catholics and others around the globe, has changed through time, though some traditions remain, says Brock University Associate Professor of History Colin Rose.

  “The conclave itself is around 1,000 years old dating back to the 11th century,” Rose says. “Following the formation of the College of Cardinals around this same time, the group took on the responsibility of selecting a pope from its membership.”

  About 400 years ago, the conclave adopted its current form, in which the College of Cardinals sequesters themselves within the Sistine Chapel and holds repeated votes until a single candidate achieves a two-thirds majority.

  Traditionally, there is a waiting period between the death of the pope and beginning of the conclave lasting an average of 15 to 20 days. That window gave cardinals time to get to Rome, before the days of convenient air travel.

  Now, Rose says, that waiting period “allows cardinals to gather and, in many cases, meet one another for the first time as Vatican carpenters construct the small apartments, or ‘cells’, where the cardinals will reside during the conclave.”

  Electing a new pope can be a short or drawn-out process, with potential for repeated failed votes (indicated by black smoke) before the world sees the white smoke rise, signalling that a new pope has been chosen.

  The period after the death of the pope and before the acclamation of his successor is known as the ‘Sede Vacante’, a Latin term meaning ‘Vacant See.’

  Rose explores how the conclave and Sede Vacante reflects on — and interrupts — papal political power in his research and courses on early modern Europe.

  “On one hand, the papacy is a deeply religious position as head of the Catholic church, on the other, the pope is also a secular ruler, so election of a pope is not a strictly religious affair,” he says.

  Prior to the arrival of Napoleon in Europe and the unification of Italy in the 19th century, however, Rome was the capital of a large Papal State —under sovereign rule of the pope — that stretched northward to Bologna, covering much of the Italian peninsula.

  Thus, Rose says, the papal conclave was both a deeply spiritual and a significantly political ritual, exemplifying much about the papacy’s long and fascinating history.

  In other words: the conclave was high stakes.

  “Political rivalries present; alliances were made and betrayed, wheeling and dealing and negotiation took place, and cajoling and threatening,” Rose says.

  Sede Vacante was a chaotic time for historic Rome when rioting occurred, including ‘spolia,’ where people looted and pillaged the cardinals’ quarters before turning their attention to the Pope’s apartment in hopes of securing a religious relic for themselves.

  Rose says popes are generally in the position for seven to 10 years, so, historically, Romans would experience this cycle about once every decade.

  “Old debts would be settled with violence; criminal records might be burned during the breakdown of authority,” he says. “But when the new pope was selected, everything went back to normal.”In modern times, political ambition has been greatly stripped from the process, so the timeline is shorter, Rose says.

  While riots no longer happen in Rome, the ritual of electing a new pope retains an important place in the lives of Romans and Catholics worldwide, he adds, with certain traditions — including betting on who the next pope will be — standing the test of time.

  Rose says the spirit of the related festivities also carries on, with massive crowds expected to gather in St. Peter’s Square in the coming days.

  “While there is deep mourning, there is also renewal,” he says. “It is a celebration of what it means to be a citizen of Rome and a global citizen of the Catholic Church. It’s part of their identity and how they can take part in the election of their new pope.”

   

  Brock University Associate Professor of History Colin Rose is available for media interviews on this topic.

   

  For more information or for assistance arranging interviews:

   *Sarah Ackles, Communications Specialist, Brock University [email protected] or 289-241-5483

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  Categories: Media releases