Michael Armstrong, Associate Professor of Operations Research in Brock’s Goodman School of Business, wrote an opinion article published today in The Jerusalem Post about the costs Israel would incur if a full rocket war broke-out with Gaza.
Armstrong writes:
The Israel-Gaza conflict flared-up abruptly this month when Gaza militants fired some 460 rockets and mortar shells at Israel. Since then, residents of southern Israel have protested the subsequent unlikely-to-last ceasefire and politicians have competed to sound the most warlike. But before their tough talk leads to a war, Israeli leaders should consider the likely costs.
Israelis living near Gaza are understandably fed up. They’d been enjoying three years of relative calm, with only 122 rockets and shells fired from there throughout 2015-2017.
But in March incendiary kites and balloons from Gaza began igniting Israeli farms and forests. Those were joined in May by a resumption of serious periodic rocket fire.
The ensuing months brought more rockets and shells, with November’s barrage bringing the year-to-date count to more than 1,124. The fire hasn’t been that heavy since Operation Protective Edge, which saw some 4,692 such projectiles launched at Israel,
Since that operation ended in 2014, Gaza’s militants have reportedly stockpiled some 20,000 rockets and shells. If they were ever to unleash that arsenal, the resulting harm could be substantial, depending on Israel’s response.
If the country simply endured the fire without retaliating, the rocket attacks might last five months. About 80% would either misfire or land in open fields. Of the 20% headed for population centers, more than four-fifths could be intercepted by Iron Dome.
The remaining projectiles might inflict about 20 civilian deaths and 470 injuries. Property damage, interceptor ammunition, and lost economic output could cost Israel around $6.3 billion, or 2% of its gross domestic product.
That’s be a tough pill to quietly swallow, so a more realistic scenario would see Israel retaliating with air strikes, as it did this month. IDF bombs might destroy 40% of the rockets on the ground. That could cut the conflict’s duration to three months and Israel’s casualties to perhaps a dozen deaths and 280 injuries. (And devastate Gaza’s already inadequate infrastructure.)
But the economic price would remain similar. Decreased civilian losses would be offset by increased military expenses, and while bombing would shorten the war, it likely wouldn’t slow the rocket fire. Israel’s offensives in 2008, 2012, and 2014 all opened with rocket-destroying air strikes, but Gaza militants maintained their daily fire despite them.
Continue reading the full article here.
