Michael Armstrong, Associate Professor of Operations Research in Brock’s Goodman School of Business, wrote a piece recently published by Reuters about brinkmanship between Israel and Gaza.

Armstrong writes:

Relations between Israel and the Gaza Strip have become increasingly violent since the Palestinian “Great March of Return” protests began in March. Since then, Palestinian authorities say that 157 Gazans have been killed and thousands injured. The firepower employed by both parties has steadily escalated while purported truces have crumbled more quickly. The ceasefire announced May 30 perhaps seemed promising, but those of July 14 and July 21 seemed like aspirations rather than expectations. After the last one, a senior U.N. official said another war had appeared “just minutes away.”

This skirmishing basically represents bargaining moves by Israel and Gaza over the terms of their relationship. But their demands regarding military security, economic activity, and prisoner exchanges appear mutually incompatible. Each therefore is hoping brinkmanship will force the other to make concessions.

Israeli and Gazan firepower escalations demonstrate this progression. Gaza militants began using incendiary kites and balloons to burn Israeli crops and forests in April. In May, they fired 188 rockets and mortar shells, the first significant barrage since 2014. Explosives-laden balloons joined the fire-carrying ones in June. July saw an estimated 200 rockets being fired from the Gaza Strip in one day and sniper fire killing the first Israeli soldier there in four years.

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