Problem
I want to explore, with Fathom, the probabilities and their respective
distributions
from the data attained from the MTO. I want to look at the probability
distributions
of male and female drivers, the collisions of male and female drivers,
and drivers
killed in collisions, all with respect to their ages. I would like
to see whether I can
find any differences in these.
Plan
Using Fathom, I will create a collection chart entering the data from
Table 2.2
and 2.20 from the MTO data. I will use Fathom to calculate relative
frequencies
for male and female drivers as well as the relative frequency of drivers
killed. The
relative frequencies for male and female drivers will take the total
population into
consideration. I will then create graphs to look at the probabilities
(we will use
relative frequency as the best estimate to the probability) calculated
in the
collection chart. That is, the chart is a collection of data and the
resulting
probabilities.
Data
Graph 1: Relative Frequency of Drivers
Killed by Age Group
Graph 2: Relative Frequency of Female
Drivers by Age Group
Graph 3: Relative Frequency of Male
Drivers by Age Group
Graph 4: Percentage of Male Collisions
by Age Group
Graph 5: Percentage of Female Collisions
by Age Group
Graph 6: Percentage of Male and Female
Collisions by Age Group
Analysis
Graph 1 shows a bell shaped curve showing that 35-44 year olds are
killed more
often in collisions. Graph 2 and Graph 3 show a bell shaped curve
demonstrating
a similar pattern in driving age population for both males and females,
with most
drivers on the road being between 35 and 44. Graph 4, 5, and 6 have
a similar
pattern concerning collisions by age group percentage. The highest
probability
of being in an accident whether you are male or female occurs when
you are
18 years old.
Conclusion
Graph 2 and 3 shows us the probability of finding a 35-44 year old
driver is
highest amongst all driver age groups for both male and females. That
is,
male and female 35-44 year olds make up the most drivers and thus
we have
a greater probability of finding them on the road. Since they have
the highest
population on the road, they also have the greatest probability of
being killed
while driving. This is illustrated in graph 1. Looking at Graphs 4
we see that 18
year old males have the highest probability of males of being in a
collision.
That is, the probability of being in a collision if you are an 18
year old male is
11.4%. From Graph 5, we see that 18 year old females have the highest
probability of females of being in a collision. That is, the probability
of being
in a collision if you are an 18 year old female is 6.9 percent. Looking
at Graph 6
we see that 18 year olds have the highest percentage concerning their
population involved in a collision. That is, the probability of being
in a collision
if you are 18 years old is 9.3%. Almost 1 out of 10 18 year olds is
involved in a
collision. This is important to note concerning the insurance prices
for 18 year
olds.
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