Within 30 years, tropical fisheries \u2014 on which some 1.9 billion people depend on their food and livelihood \u2014 may see a decline of 40 per cent if nothing is done to mitigate climate change.<\/p>\n
This is the prediction of a new study, described in a paper co-authored by Jessica Blythe, Assistant Professor in Brock University\u2019s Environmental Sustainability Research Centre (ESRC), and recently published in Nature Reviews – Earth & Environmen<\/em>t.<\/p>\n The researchers map out the drastic effects that warming oceans, rising sea levels and changes to ocean chemistry and ecosystems will have on tropical fish stocks and, by extension, on people \u2014 as, for example, in many Pacific Island nations, where fish can make up as much as 90 per cent of the animal protein in an average person\u2019s diet.<\/p>\n The study uses a model of greenhouse gas emissions established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in which no considerable actions are taken globally to slow the rate of climate change.<\/p>\n \u201cThe four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used by the IPCC represent climate futures that range from the lowest-emissions scenario of RCP 2.6 to the highest-emissions scenarios of RCP 8.5,\u201d says Blythe. \u201cIn our paper, we highlight the decline associated with the RCP 8.5 scenario, which is the worst-case scenario and often referred to as business-as-usual because it is considered by many to be the most likely of the four scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n She says \u201cthe implications for human suffering are huge,\u201d and notes this is yet another example of climate injustice, since \u201cthe majority of these countries contribute next to no greenhouse gases.\u201d<\/p>\n But those most directly affected will not be the only people affected, says Blythe and her co-authors.<\/p>\n \u201cEven if you live thousands of kilometres inland like we do in Niagara, if you’ve got a can of tuna in your cupboard, there’s a good chance it was caught in the tropical Pacific,\u201d Blythe says. \u201cEveryone is going to feel the negative impacts of climate change on tropical fisheries \u2014 not just people who live in the tropics.\u201d<\/p>\n Blythe, who grew up in St. John\u2019s, Newfoundland, knows all too well the extent to which collapsing fisheries can be felt.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen the North Atlantic cod stocks collapsed, I was 11,\u201d she says. \u201cI can remember the damage it wreaked on people and communities throughout the province. Looking back, I think that watching the collapse of the cod, followed by the collapse of livelihoods and economy, must have fuelled my research interests in the close connections between people and oceans.\u201d<\/p>\n In order to examine the far-reaching impacts of this issue, the research team pulled experts from around the world and from several fields \u2014 because, as Blythe notes, \u201cthe climate crisis demands a new research approach.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cUnderstanding the differential impacts of climate change and developing effective and contextualized responses requires thinkers from a variety of backgrounds,\u201d she says.\u00a0\u201cAuthors on this paper include academics and practitioners from a range of natural and social sciences, from economic modelling to human geography.\u201d<\/p>\n With a focus on the various implications of climate change on several dimensions of the natural and human environments, the paper demonstrates why it is crucial to anticipate these scenarios and work now to devise possible solutions.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen people think about food and the climate crisis, we tend to think about droughts and shortages in staple crops like corn, wheat and rice,\u201d says Blythe. \u201cOur paper points out that there are looming food \u2014 and associated social and political \u2014 crises associated with oceans and fisheries. Oceans are a critical part of the climate conversation that are often overlooked.\u201d<\/p>\n