{"id":108152,"date":"2026-03-04T12:03:23","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T17:03:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/?p=108152"},"modified":"2026-03-04T18:05:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T23:05:33","slug":"opinion-michael-armstrong-discusses-missile-defences-in-the-middle-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/2026\/03\/opinion-michael-armstrong-discusses-missile-defences-in-the-middle-east\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Michael Armstrong discusses missile defences in the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"

This piece written by Michael Armstrong, Associate Professor of Operations Research at Brock University<\/em>, originally appeared in The Conversation<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Israeli\u00a0Operation Roaring Lion\u00a0and the American\u00a0Operation Epic Fury\u00a0started early on Feb. 28 when both countries began attacking Iran. Their airstrikes killed Iran\u2019s leader,\u00a0Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while striking military targets and cities across the country.\u00a0More than 700 people\u00a0have reportedly been killed in the attacks so far,\u00a0including children at a girls\u2019 school.<\/p>\n

Iran responded with its own\u00a0Operation True Promise 4\u00a0missile and drone strikes against Israeli and American targets. But it also started bombarding nine other Middle East countries. Iran\u2019s attacks to date have killed\u00a0six U.S. soldiers, 10 civilians in Israel and about 10 more in Arab countries.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s allies have joined the fighting.\u00a0Hezbollah forces in Lebanon\u00a0and\u00a0Iranian-backed militants in Iraq\u00a0have launched their own rockets, while\u00a0Houthi militants in Yemen have threated\u00a0to enter the fray too.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s counterattacks might appear\u00a0strategically reckless. But they\u2019re sowing chaos across the region and revealing the limits of their neighbour\u2019s defences.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s defences under strain<\/strong><\/p>\n

Israel has sophisticated missile defences and\u00a0ample\u00a0operational\u00a0experience. Its\u00a0Iron Dome\u00a0short-range rocket interceptors entered service in 2011. The medium-range\u00a0David\u2019s Sling and long-range Arrow interceptors\u00a0followed.<\/p>\n

Its newest weapon is a laser system. Iron Beam saw its\u00a0first combat use last year\u00a0against drones and small rockets.<\/p>\n

But interceptors aren\u2019t foolproof, and they sometimes fail.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s\u00a0newest weapons\u00a0aggravate this problem. Some missiles reportedly carry\u00a0dozens of small explosives\u00a0instead of one big one. These little bomblets disperse while falling from the sky to complicate interception.<\/p>\n

Israel has\u00a0warning systems and bomb shelters\u00a0to protect civilians from nearby explosions, but\u00a0some residents lack immediate access to shelters.\u00a0One woman died on Feb. 28\u00a0when a missile landed near her building before she could take cover.<\/p>\n

Additionally, some older shelters were designed only to withstand smaller rockets. On March 1, a ballistic missile with a 500-kilogram warhead directly hit a shelter,\u00a0killing nine people inside.<\/p>\n

Spillover into Arab states<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s Arab neighbours are accustomed to being\u00a0bystanders during Israel-Iran conflicts. This time, however,\u00a0Iran is attacking them too.<\/p>\n

Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman have all been assaulted by Iranian weapons. Some\u00a0282 missiles and 833 drones\u00a0attacked those countries over the weekend, and the barrage remains ongoing.<\/p>\n

Even a British airbase in Cyprus, far away in the Mediterranean, has been struck.<\/p>\n

Iran claims\u00a0it\u2019s only targeting\u00a0U.S. forces stationed\u00a0in those countries. However,\u00a0airports,\u00a0hotels,\u00a0apartment\u00a0buildings\u00a0and\u00a0oil tankers\u00a0have also been hit. Oman had recently hosted U.S.-Iran peace talks, and last week\u00a0announced that peace was \u201cwithin reach.\u201d<\/p>\n

Most of the countries have\u00a0U.S.-made Patriot interceptor systems\u00a0to defend against such attacks, but they\u00a0lack Israel\u2019s operational experience. The U.S. also has\u00a0Patriot and THAAD interceptors\u00a0in the region.<\/p>\n

In one case,\u00a0three U.S. Patriot air defence missiles failed to intercept an incoming Iranian ballistic missile warhead, which reportedly struck Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. And Kuwaiti air defences accidentally\u00a0shot down three U.S. fighter jets.<\/p>\n

Costly choices<\/strong><\/p>\n

Economic costs are growing too.\u00a0With oil\u00a0and\u00a0gas refineries\u00a0closing, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz halted, global\u00a0oil prices have jumped.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s attacks beyond Israel have also prompted more countries to oppose it. Qatar shot down\u00a0two Iranian fighter jets\u00a0on March 2 and Britain has begun\u00a0allowing U.S. airstrikes from British airbases. France is sending\u00a0air defences to Cyprus\u00a0and\u00a0Ukraine is sending drone experts\u00a0to Arab countries.<\/p>\n

An uncertain future<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s difficult to predict how long the attacks will continue. Iran is believed to have around\u00a02,500 ballistic missiles stockpiled, including\u00a01,000 that could strike\u00a0Israel or perhaps Europe. Its drone supply is likely larger, meaning launches could continue for months.<\/p>\n

U.S. and Israeli warplanes are actively hunting Iranian missile launchers, but past conflicts show\u00a0airstrikes alone have little impact\u00a0on launch rates. Those drop only if ground invasions occur.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s likewise unclear how long the American-Israeli bombing campaign will last. U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested\u00a0four to five weeks, maybe longer.<\/p>\n

However, the U.S. military will likely start running out of interceptor missiles\u00a0in four weeks. Qatar\u00a0reportedly has only enough\u00a0for four days.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s warplanes will probably run out of high-priority targets even sooner.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s political end game<\/strong><\/p>\n

The greatest uncertainty right now concerns Trump and his motives, as his\u00a0war goals appear to keep shifting.<\/p>\n

He has\u00a0called for the Iranian people to \u201cseize control\u201d of their \u201cdestiny.\u201d But Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has said the operation is not intended to cause regime change.<\/p>\n

Such a regime change is unlikely. Trump\u2019s January attack on Venezuela merely\u00a0captured the country\u2019s president\u00a0and left the rest of the regime in place. He showed more\u00a0interest in Venezuela\u2019s oil than its governance.<\/p>\n

America\u2019s previous regime change in Iran also didn\u2019t end well. In 1953, the U.S.\u00a0Central Intelligence Agency incited a coup\u00a0that removed Iran\u2019s elected government and replaced it with a military regime that was friendly to U.S. but unpopular in Iran. In 1979, a revolt ended the dictatorship and installed the current Islamic Republic.<\/p>\n

Trump has often\u00a0favoured transactional diplomatic deals\u00a0in the past. Whether this conflict moves toward escalation or negotiation remains unclear, but it\u2019s likely he\u2019ll seek do something similar here.<\/p>\n

What is clear is that the longer the conflict continues, the greater the human and economic costs are likely to be.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Michael Armstrong, Associate Professor of Operations Research at Brock University, recently published a piece in The Conversation about the limits of missile defences in the Middle East. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":108165,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[39,6],"tags":[594,4395,5512],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108152"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108152"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108152\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":108167,"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108152\/revisions\/108167"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/108165"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108152"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108152"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/brocku.ca\/brock-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108152"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}