With U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s recent launch of official \u201cTrump 2028\u201d merchandise, Brock University experts point to historical and recent examples of leaders who have flouted or reinterpreted laws to justify staying in office beyond term limits.<\/p>\n
Although the U.S. Constitution explicitly prohibits a third term for any president, Associate Professor of Political Science Pascal Lupien says this will only present an obstacle if Trump cannot gain enough popular support.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Latin America, nearly every country enshrines term limits in their constitutions, but it\u2019s quite common for presidents to remain in office despite these provisions,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n
Lupien points to current sitting presidents in Venezuela, Nicaragua and El Salvador who are still in power beyond the constitutional term limits, which he credits to political manoeuvring and questionable legal tactics.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese include stacking the high courts with people who are more loyal to the president than to the constitution and neutering the Congress\/legislature, both of which Trump has done to a certain extent,\u201d Lupien says. \u201cIt also includes getting a significant segment of the public on board. Politicizing and taking direct control of the army is another crucial step for a leader who wishes to remain in power against the constitution.\u201d<\/p>\n
Lupien further notes that the general public seems unprepared to believe that democracy could be thwarted in the U.S., \u201cnaively assuming that this kind of erosion can only occur in the Global South.\u201d But since January 2021 and over the first months of President Trump\u2019s second term, he says institutions have shown to be \u201cfluid and weakened.\u201d<\/p>\n
Associate Professor of Political Science Stefan Dolgert says would-be authoritarians in Italy, France, Spain and Germany in the 1920s and 1930s all engaged in \u201cprovocative actions.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe dangerous implications were not immediately perceived at the time, sometimes because of how outlandish their behaviour appeared,\u201d he says. \u201cCanadians and Americans need to understand that seemingly ludicrous actions by authoritarian rulers are an established path to actual despotism.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dolgert adds that the launch of new \u201cthird term\u201d apparel follows a trend visible over Trump\u2019s political career.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe initially floats ideas that are flagrantly unconstitutional, then claims to have only been joking when these comments provoke legitimate outrage,\u201d says Dolgert. \u201cHe then acts like he has been victimized by this public shaming before doubling\u00a0down on the initial idea, now no longer in jest.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dolgert predicts that \u201cas with other moves Trump has made in the past 100 days, he will try to find a legal loophole\u201d to justify a change to the Constitution and will be willing to test the case on a flimsy premise.<\/p>\n
Even if that fails, other dangers remain, Dolgert says.<\/p>\n
Seeking a third term is likely to result in massive protests and resistance from many Americans, he says, which Trump may \u201cuse as a pretext for imposing martial law and outright tyranny.\u201d<\/p>\n
Still, Lupien notes a key difference between the American system and some of the Latin American nations where power has been held beyond term limits.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn most of Latin America, loyalty to the president, at least when the president is on the right of the spectrum, is deeply engrained in military institutions, but in the U.S., officers and soldiers swear to defend the constitution, not to obey the president,\u201d he says. \u201cEnlisted members do swear to obey lawful orders from the president and officers, but within the framework of the constitution and the law.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Lupien believes the military obligation to refuse to follow illegal orders might be beneficial, he warns that the tide of popular opinion should not be underestimated.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe power of a constitution depends on the willingness of people to uphold it,\u201d Lupien says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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